Say-Do Is a Dead End: Leading Teams to Thrive, Not Just Survive
When was the last time everything in your plan went exactly as expected? If you’re leading in software development, the answer is probably ‘never.’ Yet, many organisations still cling to the Say-Do Ratio — a metric that measures how well teams deliver on what they say they’ll do.
At first glance, the Say-Do Ratio seems ideal. It promises simplicity in complexity — a clear metric for success. It reassures stakeholders, gives leaders a tidy number to measure, and offers teams a straightforward goal to aim for. But the reality is far different.
In the messy, adaptive world of software development, Say-Do isn’t just outdated — it’s actively harmful.
It punishes honesty, stifles innovation, and forces organisations to cling to plans long after reality has shifted. Instead of driving value, it traps teams in a cycle of fear, gaming the system, and checking boxes for work no one needs.
Leaders looking to drive meaningful progress and value must reconsider how they measure success.
This post isn’t just a critique — it’s a call to action for leaders. I’ll explain why Say-Do fails and show how to replace it with metrics that matter: flow, adaptability, and outcomes. It’s time to ditch the ratio and embrace smarter, more effective ways of leading your teams.
The Pitfalls of the Say-Do Ratio
The Say-Do Ratio sounds sensible; it feels intuitive and logical even. But in software development — where complexity and unpredictability reign — it’s more of a trap than a tool, and here’s why:
1. Prioritises Optics Over Outcomes
At its core, the Say-Do Ratio drives teams to prioritise appearances over meaningful progress. It creates a culture of fear where failure is not an option, and sticking to commitments becomes more important than delivering value.
When the Say-Do Ratio rules, teams learn to play it safe. They sandbag commitments, aiming low to avoid the “shame” of missing a target. Instead of experimenting or pursuing ambitious goals, they stick to what feels safe, stifling innovation and growth.
Even worse, Say-Do distorts priorities. When circumstances inevitably change in complex systems, teams face a dilemma: adapt to what matters now or stick to outdated commitments to preserve their ratio. Too often, they choose the latter — delivering work no one needs just to check a box.
The result? Teams focus on optics — how good the numbers look — while outcomes that actually matter for customers and the business take a backseat.
2. Kills Adaptability
Adaptability is a superpower in complex systems. But Say-Do punishes teams for being adaptive. Changing course mid-task? That’s a hit to the ratio. Tackling urgent unplanned work? Another ding.
Over time, teams learn to resist change — even when it’s clearly the right move. The process becomes the master, and the customer is left waiting and, more likely than not, wanting!
3. Misaligned Incentives
Say-Do incentivises teams to prioritise compliance over impact. It’s not about delivering value — it’s about making the numbers look good.
To protect the ratio, teams inflate estimates, redefine “done” to include partial or low-value work, and check boxes instead of solving real problems. While the numbers may look great, the outcomes often fall short.
When metrics like Say-Do measure optics instead of outcomes, teams waste energy on gaming the system rather than driving meaningful progress.
4. Ignores Complexity
Software development is inherently messy. Dependencies emerge mid-stream, bugs and misunderstandings crop up, and customer needs change faster than plans can keep up.
The Say-Do Ratio pretends this complexity doesn’t exist. It assumes teams can predict and control every variable — and punishes them when reality intrudes. Variability, however, is a natural part of any system of work. Some fluctuations are expected, while others — like unexpected blockers — demand attention and adaptation.
Say-Do’s rigid focus on commitments ignores this reality, forcing teams into an unrealistic quest for predictability at the expense of value and progress.
5. Fails to Manage Variability
Variability is inevitable in any system of work. Cycle times fluctuate, throughput changes and even routine tasks can be delayed by unforeseen blockers or complexity.
While some variability is normal (common cause), others require active management, like system-level blockers or priority shifts (special cause). Instead of addressing these realities, Say-Do treats all disruptions the same: as failures to meet commitments.
By focusing on flow metrics and variability analysis, teams can:
- Distinguish normal fluctuations from critical disruptions.
- Address systemic issues rather than penalising teams for missing arbitrary targets.
- Build systems that embrace variability instead of fighting against it.
So Why Are We Still Using It?
It’s comfortable, easy, and gives us the illusion of control in a chaotic world. However, comfort and control are not the metrics of success. Outcomes are. Adaptability is. Flow is.
Say-Do had its moment. But if we want teams to thrive, not just survive, it’s time to move on.
What Really Matters in Complex Systems
As a leader, if Say-Do is a dead end, what should you measure instead? The answer lies in recognising the nature of complex systems: they are unpredictable, adaptive, and ever-changing. Success in such environments doesn’t come from rigid adherence to a plan.
Here’s what really matters:
1. Flow Over Commitment
In complex systems, speed, predictability, and throughput trump promises. Instead of fixating on what a team says they’ll do, measure how effectively they move work through the system.
Key flow metrics to focus on:
- Throughput: Measures how much work is actually delivered over a defined period, helping leaders set realistic expectations for progress and capacity.
- Cycle Time: Tracks how long it takes to complete a single work item, revealing inefficiencies or bottlenecks that slow delivery. Shorter cycle times mean greater responsiveness and faster delivery.
- Work Item Age: Captures the time elapsed since a work item began, enabling leaders to identify ageing tasks and take proactive action before delays cascade. It’s a leading indicator of potential cycle time issues.
- Work in Progress (WIP): Measures the number of work items currently in progress. High WIP levels overwhelm the system, slowing throughput and creating unpredictability. Keeping WIP low ensures smoother, more predictable flow.
By focusing on these metrics, leaders can shift their teams’ focus from outputs to outcomes, creating systems that optimise for flow, adaptability, and value delivery. Flow metrics expose inefficiencies, highlight blockers, and drive continuous improvement — not just how well teams meet arbitrary commitments.
2. From Static Commitments to Continuous Forecasting
Say-Do is static. It forces teams to predict their actions upfront and sticks them with those commitments, no matter what changes. Continuous forecasting, on the other hand, embraces uncertainty and adapts to reality.
As Dwight D. Eisenhower famously said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” This captures the essence of continuous forecasting: the value lies not in rigid adherence to a plan but in the ongoing process of revisiting and refining it as conditions evolve.
“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower
Here’s how it works:
- Use historical data, like throughput, to make probabilistic forecasts.
- Revisit forecasts regularly when new information arrives that either validates or invalidates initial assumptions when the original forecast was made.
- Forecast outcomes based on ranges, not fixed targets — because in complex systems, there’s always more than one possible outcome, and you need to account for that uncertainty.
Continuous forecasting shifts the conversation from “Why didn’t you hit the planned dates?” to “What’s the most likely outcome given where we are today, and how likely is that?” It empowers teams to course-correct, respond to change, and maintain transparency without fearing failure.
3. Adaptability and Learning Matter Most
Complex systems thrive on feedback loops. When teams are free to learn, adapt, and improve, they deliver better outcomes — not just more predictable ones.
As Peter Senge wisely said, “The only sustainable competitive advantage is an organisation’s ability to learn faster than the competition.” In a fast-paced, unpredictable world, it’s not the organisations with the best-laid plans that win — it’s the ones that can learn, adapt, and respond to change the quickest.
To foster adaptability:
- Encourage teams to take on uncertain, exploratory work. Learning is a feature, not a failure.
- Reward transparency over perfection. A team that admits it needs to pivot is working in service of the customer, not the plan.
- Treat missed forecasts as data, not disasters. They’re opportunities to learn about what’s possible and adjust accordingly.
In short, adaptability isn’t a nice to have. It’s the foundation of success in complexity.
4. Outcomes Over Outputs
Finally, remember this: no one cares about what you committed to deliver. They care about what you actually deliver — and whether it solves their problem.
Measuring outcomes means shifting your focus:
- From “How much did we do?” to “What value did we create?”
- From “Did we hit our commitments?” to “Did we make a difference for our customers, and how has their behaviour changed?”
“Delivering outputs without focusing on outcomes is like baking a cake without knowing if anyone wants to eat it. You might produce something, but if it doesn’t meet the needs or preferences of the customer, it’s just wasted effort. Outcomes ensure you’re solving the right problem, not just completing tasks.”
Value doesn’t come from meeting a plan. It comes from solving problems, delighting customers, and driving business results. Outcomes are what matter — not the number of tasks you checked off along the way.
The Shift to What Matters
Flow, forecasting, adaptability, and outcomes. These are the measures of success in complex systems. They’re harder to track than a simple ratio but infinitely more valuable.
When you stop obsessing over Say-Do and start focusing on these metrics, you empower teams to thrive — not in spite of complexity, but because of it.
Breaking Free from the Say-Do Trap
If the Say-Do Ratio is dragging your teams down, it’s time to cut the cord. This isn’t just about ditching a metric — it’s about shifting how teams think, work, and succeed in complex systems, and here’s how:
1. Stop Measuring Commitment Adherence
The first step is simple: remove the Say-Do Ratio from your dashboards.
- Replace it with flow metrics that give you, as a leader, a true picture of your team’s performance
- Make it clear that hitting commitments is not the goal — delivering value is.
This change is symbolic and powerful: “We care about outcomes, not how well you stick to the plan.”
2. Embrace Flow Metrics
Flow metrics are the antidote to Say-Do’s rigid focus on commitments. Start using these instead:
- Throughput: Track the number of work items completed over time. Use it to understand what’s achievable and guide realistic forecasts.
- Cycle Time: Measure how long it takes to deliver value. Aim to reduce bottlenecks and improve predictability.
- Work Item Age: Watch aging items like a hawk. If work is stuck, find out why and fix it.
- WIP (Work in Progress): Limit WIP to keep the system running smoothly and prevent it from becoming overburdened.
Pro tip: Put dashboards around the team to help visualise these metrics and make them a daily part of team discussions.
3. Make Forecasting a Team Habit
Replace one-time commitments with continuous forecasting. Teach teams to use historical data to predict likely outcomes — and to revisit those forecasts regularly.
Here’s how to get started:
- Start simple: Use historical throughput to predict how many work items will likely be completed within a defined period.
- Get sophisticated: Introduce probabilistic forecasting methods like Monte Carlo simulations to model ranges of possible outcomes.
- Involve the team: Make forecasting a collaborative process so everyone understands and contributes to refining the data.
Remember: the goal isn’t to make perfect predictions. The goal is to develop realistic expectations that adapt to changing conditions.
4. Build Psychological Safety
The Say-Do Ratio creates a culture of fear. Breaking free means creating an environment where teams feel safe to:
- Experiment with risky but high-potential work.
- Admit when they need to pivot or adjust expectations.
- Use missed forecasts as learning opportunities, not failure points.
As Henry Ford famously said, “Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently.” Psychological safety allows teams to embrace failure not as an endpoint but as a stepping stone toward improvement. When teams feel supported to learn from their missteps, they grow smarter, more resilient, and better equipped to deliver meaningful value.
As a leader, your role is to reward transparency and celebrate adaptability. If teams know they won’t be punished for missing commitments, they’ll stop gaming the system and start solving real problems.
5. Prioritise Outcomes Over Outputs
Shift the focus from “What did we finish?” to “What impact did we make?”
- Encourage teams to measure success based on customer and business outcomes, not just work completed.
- Use feedback loops to validate whether delivered work created the value expected (or promised).
- Treat every delivery as an experiment: Did it achieve what we hoped? If not, what did we learn? Given that, what next?
Pro tip: Pair flow metrics with outcome-based metrics, such as customer satisfaction, adoption rates, or revenue impact, to get a complete picture of success.
A Roadmap to Better Teams and Systems
Breaking free from the Say-Do Trap isn’t just about metrics. It’s about empowering teams to focus on what matters: delivering value in a complex, unpredictable world.
By dropping outdated metrics, embracing flow and forecasting, and fostering a culture of trust and adaptability, you’ll unlock the full potential of your teams. No more fear. No more gaming the system. Just meaningful outcomes and systems that thrive under pressure.
Are you ready to ditch the ratio and embrace a better way of working? The time to start is now.
What About Projects? The Myth of Predictability
“But what about integration or vendor system installation projects and other project work?” It’s a common question when discussing the limits of the Say-Do Ratio. These projects often feel linear: migrate the data, configure the system, and test the connections. Leaders argue that this type of work requires predictability, not adaptability.
Hard truth coming up: even in these projects, Say-Do offers the illusion of predictability — not reality. Complexity still reigns, with dependencies, unforeseen blockers, and shifting priorities. Rigid adherence to commitments doesn’t eliminate these challenges; it only hides them until they derail progress.
Why Flow Metrics Work Here, Too
At their core, even project-based work is about efficiently moving tasks through a system. Flow metrics like throughput, cycle time, and work item age are far better suited to tracking progress than a simple commitments-to-completions ratio:
- Throughput shows the pace of delivery over time.
- Cycle Time highlights inefficiencies and blockers before they become critical.
- Work Item Age reveals tasks stuck in limbo, enabling proactive intervention.
- Work In Progress highlights when the team is being forced to split their focus, becoming overburdened — controlling it ensures teams can complete work faster and with higher predictability.
By focusing on flow, you stop asking, “Did we hit our commitments?” and start asking, “What’s moving, what’s stuck, and how do we keep progress flowing?”
Pair Flow with Forecasting
Project work often demands predictable timelines. Flow metrics enhance this by using historical throughput and cycle time data to forecast milestones with realistic probability ranges, like “85% confidence of completing data migration by June 15.” Regular updates ensure transparency and trust as conditions change.
Adaptability Still Matters
Even in linear-seeming projects, adaptability is essential. Requirements change, vendor software behaves unpredictably, and external dependencies create delays. Systems built around flow and continuous forecasting can adapt to these realities without sacrificing progress or trust.
Flow metrics and continuous forecasting replace the rigidity of Say-Do with real progress, transparency, and systems that work in the real world — not just on paper.
The Payoff: Thriving Teams
Imagine this: a team that isn’t shackled to arbitrary commitments. A team that doesn’t waste time gaming the system to protect a ratio. A team that isn’t afraid to pivot when priorities shift, or new challenges arise. Instead, they’re focused on delivering value, learning from their customer, and continuously improving.
This is the payoff of breaking free from the Say-Do Trap. It’s not just about better metrics — it’s about creating systems and teams that thrive in the face of complexity, uncertainty, and change.
1. Predictable Progress Without the Pain
Flow metrics give teams an accurate picture of progress — not just adherence to a static plan.
- Throughput shows what’s getting done.
- Cycle time helps teams identify and fix bottlenecks. Tracking it against the team’s Service Level Expectations (SLEs) provides a single-item prediction of how long an item will likely take to deliver, with a defined level of certainty.
- Continuous forecasting empowers teams to set realistic expectations and adjust as they go.
The result? Progress becomes predictable — not because teams are chained to commitments, but because their system is healthy and flowing.
2. Freedom to Focus on Value
When you ditch Say-Do, teams stop obsessing over meeting commitments and start focusing on delivering value. They can:
- Pivot to higher-priority work without fear of “hurting the numbers.”
- Take on exploratory tasks that drive learning and innovation.
- Spend time solving real customer problems, not just checking boxes.
This freedom drives better outcomes for the business and the customer, creating a sense of purpose that energises teams.
3. A Culture of Learning and Adaptability
Teams that thrive don’t fear failure — they embrace it as a source of learning. By removing the fear of “missing commitments,” you create a culture where teams feel safe to:
- Surface problems early rather than hiding them to protect a ratio.
- Experiment with new approaches and adapt to feedback.
- View unexpected outcomes not as failures but as opportunities to improve.
This adaptability isn’t just good for morale — it’s essential for navigating the uncertainty and complexity of modern software development.
4. Systems That Get Better Over Time
Flow metrics don’t just show what’s happening now — they reveal patterns that help teams and organisations improve. By focusing on flow, you can:
- Identify and remove systemic blockers.
- Optimise WIP limits to keep the system moving smoothly.
- Use historical data to refine forecasts and make better decisions over time.
Instead of spinning in circles trying to hit arbitrary commitments, teams get better at delivering value predictably and effectively.
Thrive, Don’t Survive
The Say-Do Ratio is a survival metric — it measures how well teams meet commitments to avoid blame. But survival isn’t enough. Thriving means delivering meaningful outcomes, learning from experience, and adapting to change.
By embracing flow, continuous forecasting, and adaptability, you can create systems where teams thrive in complexity. Progress becomes predictable. Value delivery becomes second nature. Most importantly, your teams drive innovation and deliver meaningful impact for your organisation.
It’s time to leave survival mode behind and build systems that thrive.
Conclusion: Burn the Ratio, Build the Future
The Say-Do Ratio is a relic of a simpler time. It promises predictability but delivers rigidity. For leaders, it punishes teams for adapting, rewards gaming the system, and creates the illusion of progress while real opportunities slip away.
In today’s complex, ever-changing work environments, your role as a leader is to create systems that thrive under pressure. Thriving demands metrics that flow, adapt, and focus on delivering value — not just ticking boxes.
It’s time to let go of outdated metrics and embrace smarter ways of leading. Focus on flow. Embrace continuous forecasting. Build psychological safety. Measure outcomes, not outputs.
Leaders who embrace this shift will build organisations that don’t just survive complexity but thrive in it. The future of work belongs to leaders bold enough to evolve. Are you ready to make the shift?
